Tariff Expectations Drive Copper Inflows and Price Premium
According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, copper prices have been supported this year by inflows into the US ahead of potential tariff implementation. In a report sent to clients Wednesday, analysts noted that COMEX copper prices in the US have risen about 11% since the start of 2025, trading at a premium to global market prices.
The bank highlighted that North American copper mining stocks have also gained approximately 9% year-to-date, naming Capstone Mining Corp (TSX:CS) and HudBay Minerals (NYSE:HBM) as their top sector picks.
Tariff Uncertainty Fuels Copper Demand
The price surge stems from President Trump’s February announcement of a potential new tariff investigation on copper—a critical metal used in everything from electric vehicles to power grids.
Government data cited by Reuters reveals this investigation, along with opportunities to capture premium prices, has triggered significant copper inflows to the US. March imports exceeded 123,000 metric tons, compared to 58,000 tons in February and 76,000 tons in January.
Risks to the Bullish Case
However, RBC strategists led by Sam Crittenden pointed to weakening signs in both copper demand and supply. They warned that if Trump ultimately decides against imposing tariffs, it could become a “negative catalyst” for prices.
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